Fact or Fiction: Kansas in the Top 25, M.J. Rice, Michigan's title odds
With the regular season now in its final month and recruiting news remaining relentless, Rivals national recruiting analysts Rob Cassidy and Dan McDonald tackle three of basketball’s most interesting topics and debate whether each statement is true or false. Below, they discuss Kansas’ fate, whether or not Michigan will win the Big Ten and examine the recruitment of NC State’s top 2022 target.
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Related: Gaggle of ACC teams vying for MJ Rice
2021 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Top 30
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1. Kansas will finish the season ranked in the AP Top 25
Cassidy's take: FACT. This is nowhere near a typical Kansas team from a talent standpoint, but its recent win over Oklahoma State was encouraging enough. I’d argue that the Jayhawks are better than a couple of the teams currently ranked at the back end of the poll. The offensive efficiency rating is a mess, but KU can play enough defense to finish the year with some number -- any number -- next to its name. We aren’t exactly talking about a high bar here.
KU’s next three games feature two meetings with 2-12 Iowa State and a game against 5-16 Kansas State. Every game on the remaining schedule save for the season finale against Baylor feels winnable. I don’t think the top 20 is out of reach. Of the bluebloods currently toiling in near irrelevance, Kansas might somehow be in the best shape.
McDonald's take: FICTION. Whether they will be worthy of it or not, the last three games for Kansas plus the conference tournament will ultimately keep it out of the AP Top 25 poll. Texas Tech, Texas and Baylor is a brutal way to go into the conference tournament. You could spin this the other way and say it gives the Jayhawks three opportunities for big wins to catapult them back in, but I just don’t feel great about their chances in any of those games.
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2. M.J. Rice will land at NC State
Cassidy's take: FACT. I’m going to say “fact” with a caveat. The pro route could be an avenue available to M.J. Rice when the time comes, and it’ll be hard for the Wolfpack to win a recruiting battle against a paycheck. If that becomes a real option, all bets are off.
Duke may also be a factor, but the bond Rice seems to have in place with the NC State staff seems galvanized to say the very least. I understand NC State vs. the field is a longshot bet, but I like to live dangerously. There’s a different, more comfortable tone in Rice’s voice when he begins to speak about Kevin Keatts’ program. And while that could certainly change when he begins to take visits, Keatts and company seem to be the solid front-runner for the time being.
McDonald's take: FACT. When Kevin Keatts locks in on a kid from North Carolina that Duke and North Carolina aren’t putting the full court press on, I like his chances. The Wolfpack have been recruiting him since he was in middle school. At the end of the day, that relationship and the opportunity to play for his home state will be too much for him to turn down.
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3. Michigan will hold on to win the Big Ten regular season title.
Cassidy's take: FICTION. This feels like a bit of a coin flip. The whole situation is convoluted because of makeup games and the fact that the head-to-head meeting between the Wolverines and second-place Illinois was postponed. Both teams obviously look talented enough to win the league but Michigan holds a two-game lead in the standings.
It works in Michigan’s favor If the game with Illini isn’t made up. It likely will be, however, and so the schedule suggests Illinois may have a leg up. Illinois' scheduled games against Wisconsin and Ohio State are its only remaining meetings with ranked opponents. Meanwhile, Michigan still has matchups with Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State on the slate.
McDonald's take: FACT. This is a tough one because it’s always hard to predict what a team will look like coming off a long break like the Wolverines have been on. My guess is they’ll come back fresh and won’t miss a beat, although they do have some tough games ahead with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Rutgers and Iowa. With a two-game lead though, I’ll say they hang on for the regular season title.